A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
